SRA is an organization devoted to the quantitative study of Strat-O-Matic (SOM) baseball. SRA has developed several SOM computer-based managing aids. If you are interested in taking the guesswork out of playing SOM baseball, you have come to the right place !!
Interested in SOM BB tournament play ? The STAR TOUR provides a national clearinghouse for conducting your very own approved tournament !
Questions/comments email to: velten@dnaco.net.
Vince Velten, President of SRA
The LINEUP Spreadsheet
Draft Analysis
Team Management Analysis - Team Strength and Managing Skill
Runs Created in SOM
General Analysis - When is it Luck ?
The SOM Game Co. can be contracted directly via email at som1@ix.netcom.com. Do SRA a favor and tell them you got the info from this web page !
SRA has developed a spreadsheet to address perhaps the central question in SOM player selection - when to trade-off glove for stick or 'stack' against a backwards/forwards pitcher ? Probably the easiest way to explain LINEUP is to show an example output using the 1994 card set: (NB: Set your fixed font preference to Courier or Courier New or another fixed pitch font in order for the example views to align correctly)
OB% TB% BA CBA Runs trnmnt: 0 ninn: 9 Pos Rng E 289 364 212 221 3.99 Gaussian W%: Batting Average 233 daultond.phn 2 2 2 326 444 276 241 5.8 479 On Base % 274 bagwellj.hon 3 1 14 212 255 212 216 1.86 Total Base % 377 lindj___.kca 4 1 10 334 313 264 218 4.23 Def OB (P card) 10.9 boggsw__.nya 5 2 19 288 299 224 232 3.27 Def TB (P card) 59.1 larkinb_.cin 6 1 16 312 440 239 198 5.39 Pythagorean W%: bondsb__.sfn 7 1 5 287 461 255 197 5 487 Runs Created 3.85 griffeyk.sea 8 1 7 344 374 325 248 5.31 482 Gaussian RC 4.03 gwynnt__.sdn 9 2 5 97 171 85 85 0.5 s 1.82 ashbya__.sdn 1 2 0 OB% TB% BA CBA Runs 251 448 229 294 4.05 Gaussian W%: Batting Average 208 piazzam_.lan 2 3 2 365 496 242 235 7.69 521 On Base % 256 thomasf_.cha 3 4 12 259 263 204 188 2.48 Total Base % 425 reedj___.mla 4 3 5 199 440 175 174 2.96 Def OB (P card) 55.2 williamm.sfn 5 1 18 241 291 164 183 2.49 Def TB (P card) 84.4 bellj___.pin 6 2 23 302 540 260 234 6.32 Pythagorean W%: bellea__.cla 7 3 9 328 459 304 279 6.04 513 Runs Created 3.95 loftonk_.cla 8 1 3 273 380 202 201 3.86 518 Gaussian RC 4.17 salmont_.caa 9 2 13 115 186 94 94 0.66 s 2.01 madduxg_.atn 1 3 30 LA 8 5 5 5 copyright 1995 SRA. All rights reserved. Prk LSI RSI LHR RHR
LINEUP is based on the well-known sabermetric runs created (per out) formula 'discovered' by Bill James (RC=OBP*TB/(1-OBP)*27). In it's current version all major game effects are included such as W/N power, ballparks, clutch, double plays, 1W pitcher hitting for tournaments, even the impact of baserunning speed is included (note that base stealing is NOT included).
As an example of the use of LINEUP, consider the following question: Would it be worthwhile to play Spike Owen over Matt Williams against Andy Ashby in LA ? Here is the result of that change:
OB% TB% BA CBA Runs trnmnt: 0 ninn: 9 Pos Rng E 294 367 218 227 4.12 Gaussian W%: Batting Average 238 daultond.phn 2 2 2 331 448 281 246 5.97 468 On Base % 279 bagwellj.hon 3 1 14 217 258 217 221 1.93 Total Base % 381 lindj___.kca 4 1 10 339 316 269 223 4.37 Def OB (P card) 10.9 boggsw__.nya 5 2 19 293 302 229 238 3.38 Def TB (P card) 59.1 larkinb_.cin 6 1 16 317 443 244 203 5.55 Pythagorean W%: bondsb__.sfn 7 1 5 291 464 260 202 5.16 476 Runs Created 3.97 griffeyk.sea 8 1 7 349 378 330 253 5.47 474 Gaussian RC 4.16 gwynnt__.sdn 9 2 5 103 174 90 90 0.54 s 1.86 ashbya__.sdn 1 2 0 OB% TB% BA CBA Runs 251 448 229 299 4.05 Gaussian W%: Batting Average 218 piazzam_.lan 2 3 2 365 496 242 240 7.69 532 On Base % 272 thomasf_.cha 3 4 12 259 263 204 193 2.48 Total Base % 413 reedj___.mla 4 3 5 341 339 262 324 4.73 Def OB (P card) 64.7 owens___.caa 5 4 20 241 291 164 188 2.49 Def TB (P card) 90.8 bellj___.pin 6 2 23 302 540 260 239 6.32 Pythagorean W%: bellea__.cla 7 3 9 328 459 304 284 6.04 524 Runs Created 4.17 loftonk_.cla 8 1 3 273 380 202 206 3.86 526 Gaussian RC 4.38 salmont_.caa 9 2 13 115 186 94 94 0.66 s 2 madduxg_.atn 1 3 30 LA 8 5 5 5 copyright 1995 SRA. All rights reserved. Prk LSI RSI LHR RHR
Spike improves Pythagorean W% by 11 points ! This is a significant result, as experiments with LINEUP have shown that it is accurate to within roughly 5 points in Pythagorean W%. Note that were this analysis to be performed in San Diego, Williams comes out about 23 points better than Owen.
LINEUP runs under windows and has been ported to Excel 5.0 & 7.0, 123 for Windows 1.0, or Quattro Pro 5.0 format. A Mac Excel version is also available.
Demonstration copies of the 1994 season card set version of LINEUP include just the carded players for Boston and Cincinatti. Note that these are .zip files (v2.04g), so you will have to unzip them yourself and then manually launch the appropriate spreadsheet application and open the file. MAC Users: The Excel version is compatible with the Mac 6.0 version of Excel (don't know about earlier Mac Excel versions) - there are decompression programs available on the WWW that are compatible with pkzipped files.
Excel 5.0 (Windows) 69K
Lotus 1-2-3 1.0 (Windows) 70K
Quatro Pro 5.0 (Windows) 76K
Instructions on using the demo version 16K
As mentioned above, LINEUP is available in 2 popular spreadsheet formats (Lotus 123 97, Excel V5.0 or 7.0 [Win 95]). Simply print out the order form, fill it in, and mail with $15 + $3 (Cash, US Bank Check, or Money order - US Funds only) postage and handling to:
Vince Velten c/o Strat Research Associates
2019 Upper Bellbrook Rd
Xenia OH 45385-9339
Make the check/money order out to Vincent Velten.
NOTE: All of the spreadsheet formats require Windows or Windows95. Mac users - LINEUP can be ported to the Mac version of Excel for an additional $2.
SRA has also developed a drafting program (called DRAFT) that has been successfully employed at over a dozen SOM tournaments, producing a combined winning % in excess of 580 over 350+ TBA games. It runs under LOTUS 123 V2.4 (for DOS) and is still 'under development'. However, if you are really interested, come to a TBA event in the Midwest and you can check out the drafting program in person. SRA anticipates eventually making the drafting program available publicly in 2-3 years. For an indication of the methodology behind DRAFT, take a look at -
Team Strength and Managing Skill
SRA has produced an extensive analysis of how Runs Created can be adapted to SOM, and plans to submit several articles to STRAT FAN over the next year. We have submitted an article to STRAT FAN on base stealing in SOM, unfortunately it was rejected as "too technical". Well, now you can just judge for yourself: Stealing: A Runs Created Analysis.
For those of you who favor the simplicity of OPS for player evaluation we have some bad news - read The Case Against OPS.
If you are mathematically oriented, we have developed a statistical model for using runs created in the context of a simulation game - Multinomial Runs Created.
We are continually in the process of converting our research results to HTML files; watch this page for future updates.
(Unofficial) SOM Home Page
: Adam C Wodon's collection of SOM History, game comments, league pages, etc. - a must see.(Official) SOM Home Page: The game company's official WWW page.
10/04/1999 01:48 PM